China's National Security Strategy Doctrine

Executive Summary

The Strategic Context

The end of the Cold War ushered in a unipolar world with the United States as the sole superpower. However, the rapid economic rise of China — especially in the new millennium — and Beijing's view that its military might should match its economic stature have created a situation in which US supremacy is being increasingly challenged.

Although this power tussle has so far been largely confined to the economic domain, in the form of the Sino-US trade war, its proliferation into the military domain could erupt at any time if miscalculations occur on the part of these great powers. To understand this power dynamic — especially against the backdrop of prevailing geopolitics — clarity on the security doctrines of these competing powers is essential, so that the future of these global dynamics can be anticipated. In this context, this paper takes an in-depth examination of China's National Security Strategy Doctrine.

Section I

Sources of the Chinese National Security Doctrine

The most comprehensive account of China's National Security Strategy Doctrine is available in the White Papers on China's National Defense, which are periodically released by the State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China. The most recent White Paper was released on July 24, 2019, titled "China's National Defense in the New Era."

A close look at the latest Chinese Defense White Paper, released in 2019, reveals that China's National Security Strategy Doctrine is essentially a direct response to two security documents of the United States — namely, the National Security Strategy of 2017 and the National Defense Strategy of 2018 — both of which depict China as a primary strategic competitor of the United States. Thus, a proper understanding of the Chinese National Security Strategy Doctrine, at least during the current era of President Xi Jinping, warrants a proper understanding of the US National Security Strategy Doctrine.

Section II

A Region and Nation of Influence

China's national security doctrine is an interplay of its growing global influence and its views of the evolving geopolitical landscape. China has become the second-largest economy in the world and has built a matching military prowess. With these capabilities, China's objective is to safeguard its sovereignty while extending its influence across the globe.

However, the differences in views between China and competing powers — especially the United States — on the definition of this sovereignty and the nature of this influence create a complex geopolitical dynamic in the Asia-Pacific region. More specifically, the geopolitical issues involving China and the Asia-Pacific region include China's policy on Taiwan, its territorial conflicts with other East Asian powers, the nature of its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the intent of its military modernisation — especially against the backdrop of its assertive policies in the South China Sea.

Section III

Evolution of the Doctrine

The three key drivers that have shaped China's National Security Strategy Doctrine over its history include its "long border," its "political system," and its "self-image." Accordingly, the security strategies employed by various Chinese regimes converge into an overall "Grand Strategy" that strives for three interrelated objectives:

1. The Long Border — Control the periphery and ward off threats to the ruling regime, a perennial concern given China's vast territorial expanse and historically contested frontiers.

2. The Political System — Preserve domestic order and well-being in the face of different forms of social strife, central to the legitimacy of the ruling regime.

3. The Self-Image — Attain or maintain geopolitical influence as a major, or even primary, state, consistent with China's historical conception of itself as a central civilisational power.

Section IV

Reviews by Think Tanks & Research Houses

This section provides a comprehensive review of China's National Security Strategy Doctrine as seen by important global think tanks, research houses, and reputed organisations. While summarising key insights and critiques of the reports on China's NSS produced by these institutions, it highlights areas of agreement and divergence among their analyses, showcasing significant trends and themes.

Major themes covered in this analysis include the key drivers of China's NSS — among them the international order, Russia-China relations, and China's military posture, including its view on nuclear weapons.

Section V

CSGEF's Audit of the Doctrine

Formulated by the Center for the Study of Global Economic Future (CSGEF), the CSGEF NSS Audit is a framework to analyse a country's National Security Strategy Doctrine within the broader context of global power dynamics. This framework evaluates national security strategies by defining specific metrics and criteria, enabling a detailed assessment of a country's comprehensive power.

Section VI

Recommendations & Roadmap

What could possibly be considered both a cause and an effect of the shift in the global balance of economic power from West to East was the epochal event of China's accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on December 11, 2001 — paving the way for its integration into the global market and its consequent emergence as a global economic powerhouse.

China's rise in the field of technological development as well as in the military domain could be seen as a direct corollary of such economic advancements. So much so that in the geopolitical realm, China has earned itself a position which is increasingly seen as a potent threat to the position of the United States — a position the latter has been striving to defend and recover.

Audit Scorecard

Quantitative Assessment

CSGEF's quantitative assessment of China's National Security Strategy Doctrine across nine key elements, scored on a 1–5 scale.